Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 6 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 27 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 115 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 2:49PM EDT until May 27 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 377,508 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 17 March 2026
- May 27, 2026 · score 43 · 2.5 km
- June 22, 2026 · score 43 · 3.5 km
- July 27, 2026 · score 43 · 6.7 km
How we know
Confirmed by 5 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 89 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 89% |
| Coordinates | 37.9965, -77.4575 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (34 km) |
| Population Exposed | 377.5K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-27T18:49:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7a62d24dd7e750341607f54fda612651 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Albemarle, VA; City of Charlottesville, VA; Lancaster, VA; Northumberland, VA; Richmond, VA; Westmoreland, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 2:49PM EDT until May 27 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-05-27T15:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7a62d24dd7e750341607f54fda612651982e949d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ca954ddb54a493e0d8eee2052522e2bd2b7ec342.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 2 E Lignum |
| Iem County | Culpeper |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | There was a call for trees down near the intersection of Elys Frd Road and Yellow Bottom Road. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_38.430_-77.450_1779900600000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779900600000,"latitude":38.43,"longitude":-77.45},{"id":"iem_D_38.240_-77.670_1779901500000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779901500000,"latitude":38.24,"longitude":-77.67},{"id":"iem_D_38.300_-77.490_1779901680000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779901680000,"latitude":38.3,"longitude":-77.49},{"id":"iem_D_38.420_-77.800_1779899400000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779899400000,"latitude":38.42,"longitude":-77.8}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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